Florida’s Shorelines Decline While Buffalo’s Waters are Thriving

Christin Bratton

Over the past two years, I have watched water levels in Florida fluctuate dramatically. During periods of heavy rainfall, lakes, ponds, and wetlands expanded beyond their normal boundaries. In some locations, water overflowed into surrounding vegetation and low-lying areas. This year, however, I have noticed the opposite and it’s a bit concerning. Water levels have dropped enough to expose distinct waterlines along shorelines that were previously submerged.

As an environmental scientist working in Florida, seeing these changes raises an important question: Is this normal for Florida, or are we experiencing something more serious?

The answer appears to be both.

Florida naturally experiences a seasonal dry period from October through May. During these months, rainfall decreases significantly, and water levels in lakes, rivers, springs, and aquifers typically decline. According to the Southwest Florida Water Management District, approximately 60 percent of Florida's annual rainfall falls between June and September. Water levels commonly drop throughout the dry season before rising again during summer rains (Southwest Florida Water Management District, 2026). The dry season is also the reason why Floedq Forestry Service provides permits for controlled burning to prevent wildfires although I'd argue that there this might be a poativite thing but the air becomes polluted and the smell of the burn lingers for miles. 

However, current conditions extend beyond a typical seasonal decline.

According to NASA, nearly all of Florida experienced at least moderate drought conditions in April 2026, while nearly 80 percent of the state faced extreme drought conditions. That's odd considering we are hearing about floods across the south. NASA reported that "many areas have received less than half their normal rainfall since September 1, 2025" (NASA Earth Observatory, 2026). The agency further noted that groundwater aquifers across northern and central Florida are significantly drier than historical averages.

The Southwest Florida Water Management District also reported a regional rainfall deficit of approximately 13 inches compared to normal annual totals. Water levels in lakes, rivers, springs, and aquifers remain below average and continue declining (SWFWMD, 2026).

These lower water levels create challenges for Florida's wildlife.

Fish populations become concentrated into smaller areas, increasing competition for oxygen and food. Wading birds, turtles, amphibians, and alligators may lose access to breeding and feeding habitat. Wetlands that normally provide shelter for juvenile fish and aquatic species can dry out completely. Drought also increases wildfire risk, which threatens terrestrial habitats and places additional stress on wildlife populations.

People are affected as well. Lower groundwater levels place pressure on drinking water supplies and private wells. Several Florida water management districts have already implemented water conservation measures and irrigation restrictions due to declining water resources (Drought.gov, 2026).

How does this compare with Buffalo, New York?

Unlike Florida, Buffalo does not currently face the same level of drought stress. In March 2026, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation announced that all upstate drought regions had returned to normal status following increased precipitation and snowmelt. Officials cited improved groundwater levels and stream flows across upstate New York (NYSDEC, 2026).

In fact, some parts of the Buffalo region have recently been monitoring higher water levels associated with spring runoff and Great Lakes water fluctuations. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported ongoing monitoring of rising water levels along Lake Ontario during spring 2026.

This contrast highlights an important difference between the two regions. While Florida is struggling with water scarcity, Buffalo currently benefits from abundant freshwater resources connected to the Great Lakes system. The weather these past few days (since this article has been written) have also been notably comfortable with minimal cold temperatures and a powerful  breeze. 

The exposed waterlines I have observed are partly a normal feature of Florida's dry season. Yet the severity of current declines suggests a larger issue. Florida is experiencing one of its most significant droughts in more than a decade. Whether summer rainfall restores these water bodies remains uncertain, but the impacts on ecosystems, water supplies, and wildlife are already visible along many of the state's shorelines. 

References

NASA Earth Observatory. (2026). Drought Parches Florida. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/drought-parches-florida/

Southwest Florida Water Management District. (2026). Dry Conditions: Your Questions Answered. https://www.swfwmd.state.fl.us/the-newsroom/dry-conditions-your-questions-answered

National Integrated Drought Information System. (2026). Drought Status Update for the Southeast. https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-status-update-southeast-2026-04-16

New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. (2026). DEC Lifts Drought Watch for Upstate Drought Regions. https://dec.ny.gov/news/press-releases/2026/3/dec-lifts-drought-watch-for-upstate-drought-regions